The great aviation re-start is well under way in some parts of the world. The UK has only a small domestic market and international travel has been heavily restricted, so the pick-up in flying there has lagged behind the rest of Europe. But now that the Government has removed the legal prohibition on international travel, airlines and airports need to adapt quickly to new realities in travel patterns.
It’s accepted wisdom that business travel will be slow to resume and that there’s pent-up demand for leisure travel. There’s also another major component of passenger air travel, Visiting Friends and Relatives travel – VFR for short.
VFR has been the major growth story of the last decade and longer. According to the Office for National Statistics, from 2009 to 2019, outbound VFR air travel grew over 40% faster than holiday travel. It now represents over a quarter of all UK outbound air travel.
This can be traffic that’s price-sensitive and therefore comes lower down some airlines’ list of target segments. But at a time when it’s vital to get revenue flowing again, VFR will be significant in reviving airlines and airports.
The largest VFR markets from the UK are varied, with both short- and long-haul destinations to the fore. Poland, Spain and Ireland dominate European VFR destinations. India and the USA vie for top spot outside Europe. Italy, France, Romania and Pakistan are also important in VFR air travel.
VFR traffic is highly resilient. India, Romania and Pakistan were the three largest directly-served destinations for UK passengers in February this year when travel was heavily constrained by government.
As restrictions ease, VFR travel will be quick to return as people will be eager to reunite with their families. That will be easiest where restrictions are minimised, for example if all EU countries move soon to the UK’s green travel status. A range of destinations in Central and Western Europe will benefit. This is likely to remain so in spite of Brexit. Even in the period since the Brexit referendum, VFR travel from the UK to EU countries continued to grow, notably to Romania, which was the fastest growing large VFR market from the UK.
Romania’s growth may taper off, but when the current crisis recedes, strong continuing growth to India and Pakistan is likely. That will translate into continued impetus for the UK’s long-haul carriers to serve those markets, at least until transatlantic business travel (and its rich revenue) returns to something closer to pre-pandemic levels.
The proportion of VFR traffic among an airport’s passengers will be important for the pace of recovery. Doncaster Sheffield, Luton and Stansted airports have a large share of VFR travel in their mix, driven by the presence of low cost carriers serving Central and Eastern Europe as well as Western European destinations. Heathrow also has a strong VFR proportion of its traffic, because it’s a magnet for long-haul carriers serving the USA and the Indian sub-continent. For these airports, a speedy resumption to VFR travel will give them a competitive advantage, at least in the short term.
Longer term, changing UK immigration policies could result in reduced levels of EU immigration and greater numbers from countries further afield. China and Turkey could become more significant for VFR traffic. India, Pakistan and the USA are likely to remain the most significant countries for long-haul VFR travel for years to come, however.
